Trump's Iran Plan: Replacing Khamenei & Lessons from Venezuela | US-Iran Conflict Analysis (2026)

The United States President Donald Trump has sparked controversy by publicly musing about the leadership he would like to see in Iran following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. During a recent Oval Office appearance, Trump discussed his plans for a "worst-case scenario" in Iran, where the US and Israel continue to wage war on the country. While Trump expressed few worries from a military standpoint, he voiced concern that Khamenei could be succeeded by another leader unfriendly to US priorities. This statement has raised eyebrows and sparked debate, as it suggests a potential strategy for regime change in Iran. But here's where it gets controversial... Trump's comments have been met with criticism and concern, as they imply a desire to remove Khamenei and replace him with a leader who might not prioritize US interests. This could have significant implications for regional stability and global relations. And this is the part most people miss... The US and Israel launched their military offensive on February 28, and Iran has responded with a barrage of attacks primarily aimed at Israel and US bases across the Middle East. The death toll in Iran has reached at least 787 people, and injuries and deaths have also been reported across the region. At least six US service members have been killed in the fighting. The Trump administration has offered a range of rationales to justify the attack, though experts have condemned the offensive as a violation of international law. One of the rationales offered by Trump himself was the removal of Khamenei’s government. In a prerecorded statement, Trump said the US military action was designed for "eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime". He added that he sought to "prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America" and issued a call for Iranian opposition members to "take over your government". However, other administration officials have attempted to downplay regime change as a motive for the ongoing attacks, including Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth. "This is not a so-called regime change war," Hegseth told reporters on Monday. "But the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it." Venezuela a model for Iran? Trump's vision for Iran's future reflects the outcome of his recent military intervention in Venezuela. On January 3, Trump authorized a military attack on the South American country that culminated with the abduction of then-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. The couple is currently in New York, where they await trial on charges related to drug trafficking. Following Maduro’s removal, his vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim leader, with the Trump administration’s support. Since then, Rodriguez’s government has largely acceded to US demands, including by surrendering millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil. Trump has warned that Rodriguez could "pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro", if she "doesn’t do what’s right". But on Tuesday, Trump indicated that the Rodriguez government has been cooperative, and he was satisfied with the results of January’s attack in Venezuela. He hinted it could be a model for Iran’s future, as well. "Venezuela was so incredible because we did the attack, and we kept government totally intact. And we have Delcy, who’s been very good. We have the whole chain of command," Trump said. Barriers to Trump’s vision Trump nevertheless signalled that there were hurdles to implementing a Venezuela-style regime change in Iran. The US and Israeli attacks on Iran, Trump indicated, had killed many of the alternative leaders he had hoped to see in power. "Most of the people we had in mind are dead," Trump said. "We had some in mind from that group that is dead. And now, we have another group. They may be dead also, based on reports." He added that his options for replacing Khamenei were running low. "Pretty soon, we’re not going to know anybody." Still, Trump has repeatedly expressed ambivalence about the leadership prospects of Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah, who was exiled during the 1979 revolution. Pahlavi, 65, has pitched himself as a candidate to lead Iran on an interim basis, in a bid to restore democracy. But critics have argued that Pahlavi is a divisive figure. His father oversaw human rights abuses during his time as monarch, and Pahlavi himself has been accused of attacking fellow dissidents and failing to build a coalition. When asked if Pahlavi could be an alternate leadership candidate, Trump demurred. "I guess he is. Some people like him," Trump said, before adding, "We haven’t been thinking too much about that. It would seem to me that somebody from within, maybe, would be more appropriate." Trump then explained he would prefer a moderate, "somebody that’s there, that’s currently popular, if there is such a person". Still, he did offer light praise for Pahlavi, repeating a comment he had previously made about the shah’s son. "He looks like a very nice person," Trump said of Pahlavi.

Trump's Iran Plan: Replacing Khamenei & Lessons from Venezuela | US-Iran Conflict Analysis (2026)
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