Pace against time: Australia's fast-bowling stocks face a defining test
The sun is relentless, and so is Father Time. Australia's aging fast-bowling cartel, defying conventional wisdom, is pushing against the slow setting of the sun. But age will eventually weary them, and the forthcoming year might condemn them. Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc, and Scott Boland, all in their thirties, are in outstanding shape as they approach a grueling schedule of 20 Tests in 12 months, possibly 21 if they reach the WTC final. The first Test begins against Bangladesh in Darwin on August 13. All but Boland aim to play in the ODI World Cup in October and November 2027.
Australia's selectors, coaches, and sports science and sports medicine staff are collectively holding their breath. This schedule is more challenging than 2023, which featured a tour of India, a WTC final, an away Ashes, and an ODI World Cup. This time, the quartet are four years older.
Questions loom about the fast-bowling stocks behind the big four, with the first-choice backups being 36-year-old Michael Neser and 32-year-old Brendan Doggett. The pipeline of ready-made fast bowling in Australia's domestic system appears thin compared to the past.
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At the Allan Border Field in Brisbane, a group of Australia's most senior bowling coaches discussed this very question over coffee. They included Australia's head coach Andrew McDonald, new bowling coach James Franklin, national pace bowling coach Adam Griffith, two-time Sheffield Shield-winning South Australia coach Ryan Harris, Queensland bowling coach Hamish Bennett, and many others.
The coaches discussed a broad range of topics, including batting depth, domestic pitches, contracting, scheduling, and player development. McDonald emphasized the importance of collaboration and connecting with differing opinions on the game's future.
Among the lead items on the agenda were Australia's fast-bowling stocks, the age profile of the senior team, the depth underneath, the challenge of three formats, franchise cricket, and the injury crisis, particularly lumbar stress injuries.
Australia's big four, ageless as they have seemed, haven't been immune to stress fractures and injuries. Starc and Boland have been indefatigable, but neither plays pain-free. Starc had a stress fracture at 23 and others in his shin and foot. Boland has never had a stress fracture but has dealt with knee and foot issues. Cummins, after years of back problems, played one international match in the last 12 months after another lumbar stress injury at 32.
Hazlewood had stress fractures as a teenager and another stress injury at 27. He hasn't played a Test in 12 months and has played just five of Australia's last 14 due to side strains, a hamstring strain, and ongoing Achilles problems.
Beyond these three, Jhye Richardson, who turns 30 in September, played one Test in the Ashes but lost his CA contract. The selectors are unsure of his ability to play in a three-man pace attack due to his many injuries. Richardson has had three surgeries on his right bowling shoulder and one on a hamstring in the past seven years, and suffered lumbar stress fractures as a teenager.
Lance Morris, 28, has been plagued by stress fractures in his lower back, eventually requiring surgery to fuse his vertebrae. Xavier Bartlett, 27, has enjoyed an injury-free run but has only recently built robustness after years of stress fractures in his early 20s. Spencer Johnson, 30; Riley Meredith, 30; and Billy Stanlake, 31, have all had major injuries and are veering towards white-ball cricket.
Nathan McAndrew, 33, and Fergus O'Neill, 25, are the most successful and durable seamers in Shield cricket over the last five years. Joel Paris, 33, has also had remarkable Shield success but has been carefully managed by Western Australia. O'Neill is the ideal age to lead the next generation.
The challenge of managing the ageing cohort and nurturing emerging talent is complex, according to McDonald. He emphasizes the importance of allowing younger players to forge their own careers and not be compared to the senior team.
The lack of ready-made depth in the group aged 24 to 30 is a concern. Griffith suggests it's the cycle, as strong groups play for so long, missing the next generation. Australia faced a similar situation two decades ago, with a group of quicks in the 24-30 age bracket, including Harris, Mitchell Johnson, and Peter Siddle, who took 647 Test wickets between them.
The state of Shield pitches, combined with the double-lacquer Kookaburra ball and the bonus points system, is a topic of conversation. In recent years, Shield pitches have had more grass coverage, and the ball moves more than before. The bonus-point system incentivizes fast-moving games, leading to outright results and maximizing points.
The unintended consequence may be that seam bowlers who pitch full at under 130kph are being rewarded and developed more than quicks with extra pace and bounce.
Griffith acknowledges the role of conditions, noting that bowlers who run in and nip the ball around at 125-130kph are harder to play in recent conditions. However, not every state coach agrees, and no one suggests making pitches flat.
The issue of stress fractures and lumbar injuries is a major concern. Pre-teens are suffering stress fractures, and CA's U-17 and -19 pathways are littered with bone-stress injuries. Jones, an expert in this field, remains flummoxed as to how to solve the epidemic.
The major concern on the medical side is that kids are bowling far more balls per week in training than the big four. There's a debate on whether professionals need rest days and periodic de-load periods, while many teenagers bowl every day.
Daryl Foster, a researcher on lumbar stress injuries, emphasizes the need for safer actions from an early age. He suggests that 80% of kids who want to bowl fast at 13-14 years of age can be kept as prospective fast bowlers through their early 20s.
Starc and Boland's success and longevity offer insights. Starc, who started as a wicketkeeper, didn't bowl until 15 and didn't have exposure to synthetic wickets. Boland, who started his professional career later, has 30,000 deliveries and 500 first-class wickets with no back breaks.
Neser's backstory is similar, with stress fractures in his early teens after bowling endlessly. His father, an orthopedic spinal surgeon, didn't allow him to bowl anything other than offspin later in his teens. Neser developed as a batter before returning to seam-up in grade cricket.
Cummins and Green, fast-tracked into Shield cricket at 17, had massive workloads, leading to injuries. Neser had another fracture at 25 but believes excessive weight training contributed. Starc suffered his first fracture later at 23 after non-stop play.
Starc's success is attributed to his work ethic, meticulous training, and genetic gifts. He hardly touched alcohol, got different flights back home, and used a sauna with infrared. He covers 54km in total distance on his feet during a Test match, running at speeds above 11kph.
The emphasis on building strength through the posterior chain is key for Starc. However, finding time for this training when playing all three formats is challenging.
Between September 2011 and August 2013, Starc played 90 matches and bowled 1134 overs non-stop. He played in various formats and tournaments, breaking after tours of India and England. From 2016 to 2023, he didn't go to the IPL, investing in his body.
Starc has returned to the IPL but given up T20I cricket to buy more time. He acknowledges that it's too much for a 36-year-old to navigate all three formats simultaneously.
The challenge lies in balancing the needs of young quicks with the demands of franchise cricket and international cricket. Everyone wants a fit young fast bowler, but the risk of re-injury is high.
The moment Australia's young quicks get motoring again, they'll be pulled in all directions, between state cricket, the BBL, franchise cricket, Australia A, and international cricket. The temptation will be to play them as often as possible if scans are clear and they are pain-free.
The coaches meetings emphasized the need for unified management of young quicks across the country, despite competing interests. Jones suggests a multi-year project to provide guidelines for pace bowlers in the pathway, particularly in the vulnerable zone.
The contracting system and franchise cricket are becoming so lucrative that carefully managing bowlers towards long-term goals is diminishing. The days of paying bowlers to not play at certain stages are fading.
Starc reflects on the challenge of managing young bowlers, stating that they want to play cricket and the baggy green. He acknowledges the rough roads ahead for young bowlers, emphasizing the need for patience and guidance.
Australia's young quicks need time, while their ageing quicks are running out of time. Time won't stand still, and the future of Australian fast bowling hangs in the balance.
